MLB Recap · April 2, 2023

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

ATL1
Final
WSH4

Line Score

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WSH40000000-460

The Story

The Washington Nationals opened their home schedule with a decisive 4-1 victory over the Atlanta Braves at Nationals Park on April 2, 2023, with all four Washington runs coming in the first inning to effectively settle the contest early. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Washington a 54 percent chance of winning, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent, a shift driven almost entirely by how quickly the Nationals seized control and how thoroughly their pitching staff held the lead thereafter.

The first inning did the bulk of the damage, and the model's win-probability tracking reflected it. Victor Robles contributed a groundout in the bottom of the first that added 7.3 percent to Washington's win probability off Jared Shuster, a sign that even routine contact was moving runners and generating runs in that early four-run burst. Atlanta had opportunities to respond but repeatedly squandered them. Marcell Ozuna's groundout in the top of the second cost the Braves 8.7 percent in win probability against MacKenzie Gore, and Ozzie Albies grounded into a double play in the top of the sixth against Hunter Harvey that erased another 8.9 percent from Atlanta's chances. Travis d'Arnaud's single off Gore in the top of the fourth added 6.5 percent for Atlanta, representing the Braves' most threatening individual moment, though it ultimately produced only the one run they managed on the day.

MacKenzie Gore was the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a WPA of plus-12.4 percent, with Hunter Harvey adding plus-8.9 percent and Erasmo Ramírez contributing plus-5.0 percent in a thoroughly efficient collective effort from the Washington pitching staff. Among position players, Dominic Smith led all batters with a WPA of plus-7.9 percent, while Robles and Ronald Acuña Jr. posted plus-3.5 and plus-3.8 percent respectively. Atlanta managed four hits across nine innings but could not convert them into sustained pressure against a Washington staff that allowed the offense nowhere to recover after that decisive first inning.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025ATL bats firstFinalWSH win %ATL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 54% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Ozzie Albies Grounded Into DP
Top 6th · off Hunter Harvey
-8.9%
Marcell Ozuna Groundout
Top 2nd · off MacKenzie Gore
-8.7%
Victor Robles Groundout
Bot 1st · off Jared Shuster
+7.3%
Dominic Smith Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Jared Shuster
+6.8%
Travis d'Arnaud Single
Top 4th · off MacKenzie Gore
+6.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Dominic Smith+7.9%+0.0 RE24
Ronald Acuña Jr.+3.8%+0.2 RE24
Victor Robles+3.5%-1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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