MLB Preview · September 7, 2026
New York Mets at Miami Marlins: Prediction, Odds & Preview
NYM 64-78at MIA 71-72·loanDepot park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
NYM43.8%56.2%MIA
The model leans MIA (56.2%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
NYM
ERA
3.60
WHIP
1.50
K%
14.9
BB%
14.9
K/9
6.30
IP
10.0
Arsenal
Four-Seam 46% · 96mphChangeup 28% · 87mphCutter 20% · 92mphCurveball 6% · 81mph
MIA
ERA
3.72
WHIP
1.18
K%
26.1
BB%
10.6
K/9
9.64
IP
135.1
Arsenal
Four-Seam 38% · 98mphSinker 18% · 98mphSlider 16% · 88mphSweeper 13% · 84mphChangeup 9% · 90mph
Forecast at First Pitch
⛅87°FPartly cloudy
Wind 4 mph S · in from CF
Precip 11%
Model vs Market
MoneylineNYM +121 · MIA -133
Total7.5
Market implied (MIA)55.8%
Model − market (MIA)+0.4 pts
Consensus across 3 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
NYM
Cionel Pérez (P)Injured 15-Day
Devin Williams (P)Injured 15-Day
Jorge Polanco (DH)Injured 60-Day
Reed Garrett (P)Injured 60-Day
Tylor Megill (P)Injured 60-Day
MIA
Xavier Edwards (2B)Injured 10-Day
Anthony Bender (P)Injured 15-Day
Max Meyer (P)Injured 15-Day
Pete Fairbanks (P)Injured 15-Day
Adam Mazur (P)Injured 60-Day
Andrew Nardi (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.