MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
New York Yankees at San Diego Padres: Prediction, Odds & Preview
NYY 81-61at SD 74-68·Petco Park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
NYY51%49%SD
The model leans NYY (51%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
NYY
ERA
3.29
WHIP
1.11
K%
25.8
BB%
5.2
K/9
9.52
IP
104.0
Arsenal
Four-Seam 49% · 97mphSlider 19% · 90mphCurveball 14% · 83mphChangeup 14% · 86mphSinker 4% · 96mph
SD
ERA
3.11
WHIP
1.17
K%
21.3
BB%
9.5
K/9
7.83
IP
162.0
Arsenal
Sinker 28% · 93mphChangeup 27% · 86mphFour-Seam 20% · 94mphSweeper 20% · 82mphSlider 5% · 85mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | NYY wOBA | NYY Whiff | SD wOBA | SD Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 69% | .350 | 21% | .353 | 23% |
| Changeup | 41% | .271 | 32% | .259 | 33% |
| Sinker | 32% | .375 | 16% | .378 | 15% |
| Slider | 25% | .353 | 35% | .336 | 34% |
| Sweeper | 20% | .241 | 32% | .282 | 30% |
| Curveball | 14% | .301 | 38% | .255 | 33% |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
☁️89°FOvercast
Wind 13 mph N · in from CF
Precip 1%
Model vs Market
MoneylineNYY -110 · SD -105
Total7
Market implied (SD)49.4%
Model − market (SD)-0.4 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
NYY
Trent Grisham (CF)Injured 10-Day
Fernando Cruz (P)Injured 15-Day
Ryan Weathers (P)Injured 15-Day
Aaron Judge (RF)Injured 60-Day
Clarke Schmidt (P)Injured 60-Day
Giancarlo Stanton (DH)Injured 60-Day
SD
Gavin Sheets (1B)Injured 10-Day
Miguel Andujar (DH)Injured 10-Day
Jeremiah Estrada (P)Injured 15-Day
Bryan Hoeing (P)Injured 60-Day
Jason Adam (P)Injured 60-Day
Joe Musgrove (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.