MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles: Prediction, Odds & Preview
BOS 78-65at BAL 69-74·Oriole Park at Camden Yards·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
BOS52.1%47.9%BAL
The model leans BOS (52.1%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
BOS
ERA
3.23
WHIP
1.10
K%
27.7
BB%
7.0
K/9
10.10
IP
131.0
Arsenal
Four-Seam 45% · 96mphSinker 23% · 95mphCutter 20% · 89mphCurveball 9% · 83mphChangeup 3% · 89mph
BAL
ERA
4.01
WHIP
1.42
K%
21.6
BB%
10.1
K/9
8.33
IP
148.0
Arsenal
Sinker 36% · 95mphSlider 25% · 87mphCurveball 22% · 85mphFour-Seam 17% · 94mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | BOS wOBA | BOS Whiff | BAL wOBA | BAL Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 62% | .342 | 20% | .310 | 24% |
| Sinker | 59% | .355 | 13% | .385 | 15% |
| Curveball | 31% | .246 | 33% | .277 | 33% |
| Slider | 25% | .277 | 28% | .326 | 38% |
| Cutter | 20% | .375 | 19% | .317 | 30% |
| Changeup | 3% | .276 | 32% | .323 | 29% |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
⛅81°FPartly cloudy
Wind 5 mph NNE · in from CF
Precip 0%
Model vs Market
MoneylineBOS -131 · BAL +114
Total7
Market implied (BAL)45.2%
Model − market (BAL)+2.7 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
BOS
Ceddanne Rafaela (CF)Injured 10-Day
Curtis Mead (3B)Injured 10-Day
Masataka Yoshida (DH)Injured 10-Day
Willson Contreras (1B)Injured 10-Day
Justin Slaten (P)Injured 15-Day
Tyron Guerrero (P)Injured 15-Day
BAL
Christian Franklin (CF)Injured 10-Day
Luis Robert Jr. (CF)Injured 10-Day
Tyler O'Neill (RF)Injured 10-Day
Colin Selby (P)Injured 60-Day
Félix Bautista (P)Injured 60-Day
Jordan Westburg (3B)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.