MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers: Prediction, Odds & Preview
TB 85-57at TEX 70-73·Globe Life Field·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
TB53.4%46.6%TEX
The model leans TB (53.4%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
TB
ERA
4.21
WHIP
1.14
K%
29.4
BB%
6.8
K/9
10.96
IP
113.1
Arsenal
Changeup 30% · 83mphFour-Seam 27% · 91mphSweeper 21% · 82mphSinker 15% · 90mphSlider 6% · 83mph
TEX
ERA
4.31
WHIP
1.29
K%
25.5
BB%
9.0
K/9
9.83
IP
154.2
Arsenal
Four-Seam 47% · 95mphCurveball 19% · 82mphChangeup 13% · 86mphSlider 10% · 86mphCutter 7% · 90mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | TB wOBA | TB Whiff | TEX wOBA | TEX Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Four-Seam | 74% | .327 | 20% | .318 | 24% |
| Changeup | 42% | .319 | 23% | .304 | 34% |
| Sweeper | 21% | .390 | 25% | .339 | 30% |
| Sinker | 20% | .378 | 9% | .351 | 16% |
| Curveball | 19% | .327 | 27% | .295 | 31% |
| Slider | 16% | .346 | 27% | .338 | 37% |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
⛅98°FPartly cloudy
Wind 9 mph ESE · R→L
Precip 0%
Model vs Market
MoneylineTB -108 · TEX -108
Total7.5
Market implied (TEX)50%
Model − market (TEX)-3.4 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
TB
Ben Williamson (2B)Injured 10-Day
Garrett Cleavinger (P)Injured 15-Day
Manuel Rodríguez (P)Injured 15-Day
Shane McClanahan (P)Injured 15-Day
Edwin Uceta (P)Injured 60-Day
Gavin Lux (LF)Injured 60-Day
TEX
Josh Jung (3B)Injured 10-Day
Kyle Higashioka (C)Injured 10-Day
Cole Winn (P)Injured 15-Day
Nathan Eovaldi (P)Injured 15-Day
Peyton Gray (P)Injured 15-Day
Carter Baumler (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.