MLB Preview · September 6, 2026
Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins: Prediction, Odds & Preview
CHC 81-62at MIA 71-72·loanDepot park·
DiamondIQ Model — Win Probability
CHC51%49%MIA
The model leans CHC (51%). DiamondIQ model v2: season records, home-field advantage, the starting-pitcher quality gap (PitchIQ), and a calibration adjustment fit and validated on four seasons of backtest — plus live game state once underway.
Probable Pitchers
CHC
ERA
2.09
WHIP
1.07
K%
19.3
BB%
8.3
K/9
6.94
IP
81.2
Arsenal
Sinker 50% · 93mphSweeper 18% · 82mphChangeup 14% · 88mphCutter 10% · 87mphCurveball 7% · 81mph
MIA
ERA
3.43
WHIP
1.33
K%
19.1
BB%
10.0
K/9
7.34
IP
110.1
Arsenal
Sinker 26% · 96mphSweeper 25% · 84mphSplitter 24% · 87mphCurveball 17% · 84mphFour-Seam 8% · 96mph
Pitch-Type Matchup — Opposing Lineups vs the Starters
| Pitch | Usage | CHC wOBA | CHC Whiff | MIA wOBA | MIA Whiff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sinker | 75% | .382 | 10% | .357 | 13% |
| Sweeper | 43% | .366 | 26% | .282 | 30% |
| Changeup | 37% | .295 | 33% | .306 | 39% |
| Curveball | 24% | .324 | 30% | .301 | 34% |
| Cutter | 10% | .374 | 23% | .352 | 19% |
| Four-Seam | 9% | .354 | 18% | .351 | 19% |
Season Statcast: how each lineup has fared against these pitch types.
Forecast at First Pitch
⛅88°FPartly cloudy
Wind 6 mph SSE · in from CF
Precip 15%
Model vs Market
MoneylineCHC -145 · MIA +124
Total8
Market implied (MIA)43%
Model − market (MIA)+6 pts
Consensus across 9 books · for information only, not betting advice.
Injured List
CHC
Dansby Swanson (SS)Injured 10-Day
Edward Cabrera (P)Injured 15-Day
Gavin Hollowell (P)Injured 15-Day
Ben Brown (P)Injured 60-Day
Cade Horton (P)Injured 60-Day
Hunter Harvey (P)Injured 60-Day
MIA
Xavier Edwards (2B)Injured 10-Day
Anthony Bender (P)Injured 15-Day
Max Meyer (P)Injured 15-Day
Pete Fairbanks (P)Injured 15-Day
Adam Mazur (P)Injured 60-Day
Andrew Nardi (P)Injured 60-Day
Follow it live in the Game Center
Live win probability, pitch-by-pitch, and the model updating in real time.