Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers held off the San Diego Padres 3-1 at Petco Park on October 7, 2026, handing San Diego a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate giving the home side a 54% chance of winning. Milwaukee spread its offense across three separate innings, scoring once in the third, fifth, and sixth, while holding San Diego to a single run on just three hits. The Brewers finished with ten hits and proved efficient in converting them, while Padres pitching could not contain Milwaukee's key contributors at critical moments.
The game's most consequential sequence of plays came throughout the middle innings and carried into the ninth. Garrett Mitchell was the central offensive figure for Milwaukee, delivering a single off Walker Buehler in the third inning that shifted win probability by 10.0 percentage points in the Brewers' favor, then following that with a triple off Robbie Ray in the fifth worth 10.7 points. Cooper Pratt added a double off Jason Adam in the sixth that swung the model's estimate another 10.5 points toward Milwaukee. Fernando Tatis Jr. gave San Diego its only moment of real traction with a home run off Robert Gasser in the bottom of the third, a swing worth 11.0 percentage points for the Padres, but the offense never built on it. The game ended with Gavin Sheets striking out against Trevor Megill in the ninth, a moment the DiamondIQ model registered as a 14.4-point swing that closed the door entirely on the Padres' chances.
On the mound, Aaron Ashby was Milwaukee's most impactful performer, generating 23.1 percentage points of win probability added, the highest of any player in the game. Abner Uribe contributed an additional 13.3 points out of the bullpen, and Robert Gasser added 6.7 despite surrendering the Tatis home run. By WPA among position players, Tatis led all hitters at plus-17.1 percentage points on the strength of his solo shot, while Mitchell finished at plus-16.6 with a team-best plus-1.4 RE24. Sheets, despite his strikeout accounting for the game's single largest win-probability swing on the pitching side, finished at plus-14.4 WPA as his out sealed the victory.