Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 1 |
| CLE | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago White Sox defeated the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 at Progressive Field on October 5, 2026, handing Cleveland a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 54 percent home win probability for the Guardians. The White Sox manufactured their winning margin in the top of the sixth inning, when Braden Montgomery's double off Erik Sabrowski shifted win probability by 21.1 percent in Chicago's favor, and Chase Meidroth followed with a run-producing single off Hunter Gaddis that added another 14.5 percent, part of a three-run frame that proved to be the decisive sequence of the game. Cleveland had taken an early 2-0 lead after the first inning but was held scoreless across the middle innings, with the White Sox chipping back with a run in the fourth before breaking the game open in the sixth.
Grant Taylor worked the eighth and ninth innings for Chicago and authored the game's two highest win-probability swings, both of them defense-dependent. Jo Adell's triple to lead off the bottom of the eighth added 21.4 percent in Cleveland's favor and briefly made the game competitive again, with the Guardians cutting the deficit to one. However, Nathaniel Lowe's flyout in that same frame cost Cleveland 19.9 percent in win probability, stalling the rally. The most consequential moment of the night came in the bottom of the ninth, when Patrick Bailey's flyout off Taylor ended the game and represented a 31.6 percent win-probability swing — the single largest play of the contest.
On the individual ledger, Sean Burke led all pitchers with a 35.7 percent win-probability contribution, anchoring the White Sox staff effort. Patrick Bailey finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-25.0 percent, a figure driven largely by that final out, while Jo Adell posted plus-16.0 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24 in a losing effort. Chase Meidroth was equally impactful at plus-15.8 percent WPA and led all players with a plus-1.1 RE24, reflecting his sixth-inning contribution as one of the game's most contextually valuable at-bats.