San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers walked off the San Diego Padres 4-3 on October 4, 2026, at American Family Field, completing a late comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 54% pre-game home win probability to a final certainty of 100%. The Padres carried a 3-2 lead into the bottom of the ninth, but closer Mason Miller could not hold it, surrendering the decisive rally that ended Milwaukee's deficit in stunning fashion.

The pivotal sequence of the evening came in the bottom of the ninth, where two plays defined the outcome entirely. Sal Frelick drew a walk off Miller that shifted win probability 12.3 points in Milwaukee's favor, setting the stage for Jackson Chourio, whose walk-off single was the most consequential play of the game by a wide margin, adding 74.2 percentage points to Milwaukee's win probability in a single swing. That hit was the largest WPA event of the contest and cemented Chourio as the night's decisive figure, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-69.2 and a RE24 of plus-1.1. Frelick also finished among the top contributors at plus-27.9 WPA and plus-1.5 RE24. Earlier in the game, a fielding error on a David Hamilton at-bat in the seventh inning, charged against Bradgley Rodriguez, had added 13.4 points of win probability for Milwaukee and kept the Brewers' chances alive through the middle innings.

On the pitching side, Michael King led Milwaukee's staff with a WPA of plus-12.5, followed by Aaron Ashby at plus-7.4 and Yuki Matsui at plus-5.8, collectively keeping the Brewers competitive long enough for the offense to rally. Ty France quietly contributed plus-12.7 WPA and a game-high plus-1.9 RE24 at the plate for Milwaukee. San Diego finished with two errors against Milwaukee's three, and both clubs managed five hits apiece, making the final outcome hinge almost entirely on execution in the ninth inning rather than any sustained offensive advantage across regulation.