San Diego Padres at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the San Diego Padres 3-2 at American Family Field on October 3, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Milwaukee win climbing from a pre-game 54 percent to a final 100 percent by the game's end. The Padres struck first, plating two runs in the second inning, but Milwaukee answered with a two-run third and never relinquished the lead from that point forward.
The two biggest swings of the game came via the long ball. In the bottom of the third, Jackson Chourio connected on a home run off Robbie Ray, a blow that shifted win probability 17.2 percent in Milwaukee's favor. William Contreras then delivered the decisive moment in the bottom of the seventh, launching a home run off Adrian Morejon that added another 18.0 percent to Milwaukee's win probability and proved to be the game-winning margin. San Diego had opportunities to respond, but Jackson Merrill's flyout in the top of the seventh represented a 12.3 percent swing against the Padres, and Fernando Tatis Jr.'s strikeout against Trevor Megill in the eighth cost the visitors another 10.8 percent. Dustin Harris provided a late glimmer with a ninth-inning single off Megill that registered a 10.6 percent positive swing for San Diego, but the rally fell short.
Contreras finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 18.7 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.1, while Dustin Harris contributed plus 9.7 percent WPA despite his team falling short, and Chourio added plus 9.0 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.8. On the mound, Trevor Megill led all pitchers with a plus 25.9 percent WPA contribution, navigating the late-inning pressure to preserve the one-run victory. Aaron Ashby added plus 15.2 percent and DL Hall contributed plus 12.3 percent, with the Milwaukee bullpen collectively securing the final result. San Diego finished with nine hits to Milwaukee's seven but could not overcome the home run ball and an error on a night when the Brewers' offense made its limited opportunities count.