Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| TOR | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 5 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-1 at Rogers Centre on September 27, 2026, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 56 percent home win probability and saw that figure climb to 100 percent by the final out. Toronto seized control early, with the decisive sequence arriving in the bottom of the second when Brandon Valenzuela drove a home run off Brandon Williamson, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 11.5 percent in Toronto's favor. The Blue Jays added to their advantage in the bottom of the third on a George Springer double off Williamson, worth plus 5.6 percent in win probability, as Cincinnati's starter continued to struggle through the early innings.
Cincinnati's most meaningful moment of resistance came in the top of the third, when Carlos Jorge singled off Max Scherzer to account for the Reds' lone run and a plus 8.7 percent win-probability swing in their direction. The Reds threatened again in the top of the eighth when Oswaldo Cabrera drew a walk off Scherzer for a plus 5.1 percent gain, but Elly De La Cruz immediately grounded into a double play off Mason Fluharty, erasing the threat and swinging win probability back by minus 5.1 percent in what proved to be Cincinnati's final realistic opportunity.
Among individual performers, Valenzuela led all batters with a plus 11.2 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24, while Cabrera and Davis Schneider contributed plus 8.5 and plus 6.2 percent WPA respectively. On the mound, Scherzer paced all pitchers with a plus 11.5 percent WPA, supported by Fluharty at plus 9.6 percent, as Toronto's pitching staff held Cincinnati to seven hits and no errors across nine innings.