St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 3-2 at American Family Field on September 26, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate placing Milwaukee's win probability at 69%, a figure that climbed to 100% by the game's end. The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth inning when Brice Turang launched a home run off Cardinals starter Quinn Mathews, a swing that added 25.2 percentage points to Milwaukee's win probability and effectively settled the contest. St. Louis had pulled within a run earlier on an Alec Burleson home run off Dustin May in the third inning, a hit that temporarily added 10.4 percentage points to the Cardinals' chances, but the Brewers answered with their two-run fifth to retake control and never relinquished it.
The Cardinals managed just three hits and committed one error across nine innings, leaving them without a credible threat in the final frames. Burleson, despite delivering the team's lone extra-base hit, finished as a net negative on the night, his ninth-inning groundout costing St. Louis 7.1 percentage points of win probability with the deficit still alive. A Cooper Pratt double play in the second inning had similarly stalled a Milwaukee opportunity, subtracting 12.5 percentage points from the home side, though the Brewers recovered efficiently from that sequence.
On the Milwaukee side, Brice Turang led all batters with a WPA of plus 25.6 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.8, making him the game's most impactful offensive performer. David Hamilton contributed a plus 15.9 percent WPA figure, aided in part by a sixth-inning sacrifice bunt that added 6.9 percentage points to Milwaukee's chances. Aaron Ashby led all pitchers with a plus 25.9 percent WPA, closing out the Cardinals over the final innings, while JoJo Romero and Gordon Graceffo posted figures of plus 14.0 and plus 10.7 percent respectively, rounding out a dominant collective pitching effort for Milwaukee.