Cincinnati Reds at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| TOR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - | 6 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Cincinnati Reds 6-5 at Rogers Centre on September 25, 2026, in a game that turned almost entirely on two explosive innings. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Toronto holding a 56 percent pre-game win probability, and while Cincinnati seized control through the middle frames, that figure ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The Reds built their advantage in the top of the third, when Elly De La Cruz delivered a two-base hit off José Soriano that added 14.4 percent to Cincinnati's win probability, and Sal Stewart followed with a single worth an additional 12.6 percent, capping a four-run frame that briefly made the Reds look like the sharper side despite playing away from home.
Toronto answered decisively in the bottom of the seventh, erasing the deficit with a four-run rally that produced three of the four largest individual win-probability swings of the entire game. Kazuma Okamoto opened the damage with a double off Pierce Johnson that shifted the win-probability needle 18.8 percent in the Blue Jays' favor, and Nathan Lukes followed with a single off Johnson worth another 13.8 percent, putting Toronto in position to tie or lead. George Springer then delivered a fielder's choice off Luis Mey that moved the needle 17.8 percent, completing the decisive sequence and giving the Blue Jays a lead they would not relinquish.
Among individual performers, Lukes finished as the game's top offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a WPA of plus-25.9 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.0, while Okamoto was nearly as impactful at plus-21.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1. Springer added plus-19.3 percent WPA despite a modest RE24 of plus-0.4, reflecting the high-leverage nature of his seventh-inning plate appearance. On the pitching side, Louis Varland led all arms with plus-15.2 percent WPA, supported by Tyler Rogers at plus-10.8 percent and Brendan Cellucci at plus-6.0 percent, as Toronto's bullpen held Cincinnati scoreless after the third inning to preserve the one-run victory.