St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 2-1 at PNC Park on September 24, 2026, in a tightly contested game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had shifting from a 56 percent pregame home win probability to a final certainty of 100 percent for Pittsburgh. The game remained deadlocked at one run apiece through seven innings before the Pirates broke through in the bottom of the eighth with the decisive moment of the night. Spencer Horwitz delivered a sacrifice fly off Ryne Stanek that swung win probability 15.1 percent in Pittsburgh's favor, providing what proved to be the winning margin. Henry Davis also contributed in that same frame with a forceout that added another 6.9 percent to Pittsburgh's win probability against Stanek, as the Cardinals bullpen failed to hold the tie.

Paul Skenes was the pitching story of the evening, leading all players with a 27.5 percent WPA contribution and anchoring a Pirates staff that ultimately allowed just one run on five Cardinals hits while committing no errors. Cooper Hjerpe added 16.9 percent WPA for Pittsburgh despite surrendering Nick Gonzales's forceout in the fifth that cost the Pirates 9.1 percent in win probability, and Mason Montgomery closed it out with a 15.2 percent WPA performance, punching out Leo Bernal in the ninth with a strikeout that swung things 7.1 percent. On the St. Louis side, Jordan Walker's strikeout in the top of the eighth against Luke Weaver represented a 7.2 percent swing against the Cardinals, compounding their offensive struggles on a night when their two errors proved particularly costly in a one-run outcome. Among Pittsburgh's batters, Horwitz led with 5.7 percent WPA, followed by Konnor Griffin at 4.0 percent and Ronny Simon at 3.4 percent.