Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap

The Atlanta Braves walked off the Cincinnati Reds 3-2 in ten innings on September 23, 2026, at Truist Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win beginning at 66% before the first pitch and climbing to 100% by the game's end. Atlanta's winning run came in the bottom of the tenth when Mauricio Dubón singled off Luis Mey to plate the deciding run, a hit that carried a win-probability swing of plus-16.9 percent. The play was set up moments earlier when Ha-Seong Kim laid down a sacrifice bunt, itself worth plus-19.5 percent in win probability, advancing the automatic runner into scoring position and effectively sealing the outcome before Dubón made contact.

The game's earlier turning points were defined by the long ball. Matt Olson broke a scoreless tie in the bottom of the sixth with a home run off Andrew Abbott, a blow worth plus-15.5 percent in win probability, and Austin Riley followed in the seventh with another solo shot off Abbott that added plus-17.3 percent to Atlanta's chances and gave the Braves a two-run cushion. Cincinnati had answered Riley's blast with a run of their own in the top of the seventh, keeping the game within reach, but JJ Bleday's flyout to end the top of the tenth swung the final nail in the rally, registering minus-14.3 percent from the Reds' perspective.

Among individual performers, Dubón led all position players with a combined plus-21.2 percent in win probability added and a run-expectancy figure of plus-0.7. On the mound, Andrew Abbott actually graded out as the top pitching contributor by WPA at plus-19.9 percent despite surrendering both home runs, a reflection of his otherwise effective work holding Atlanta down through extended innings. Raisel Iglesias added plus-13.5 percent, and Chris Sale contributed plus-11.8 percent in a Braves pitching effort that held Cincinnati to five hits and committed no errors on the night.