Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins defeated the San Francisco Giants 3-2 at Oracle Park on September 22, 2026, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate framed as increasingly likely as the game progressed. San Francisco held a narrow 1-0 lead entering the sixth inning after a second-inning run, but Minnesota turned the game around decisively from that point forward. The DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate gave the Giants a 48 percent chance of winning at home, a figure that ultimately fell to zero.

The pivotal sequence began in the top of the sixth, when Luke Keaschall ripped a triple off Anthony Molina that shifted the win probability in Minnesota's favor by 19.7 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. That hit was the catalyst for a two-run frame that gave the Twins a lead they would not relinquish. Walker Jenkins extended the advantage with a home run off Duncan Davitt in the top of the seventh, a swing worth 13.4 percentage points of win probability. San Francisco made things uncomfortable in the bottom of the ninth with a run, but Jeff Hoffman secured the final out by striking out Victor Bericoto with a sequence that produced an 18.8-point swing, and a Jonah Cox forceout in the same inning contributed another 12.3-point shift back toward Minnesota. Osleivis Basabe had grounded into a double play in the seventh to further extinguish a Giants rally.

Among individual performers, Victor Bericoto finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-22.1, largely on the strength of his at-bat in the ninth that kept the door from opening further. Andrew Knizner contributed plus-16.5 WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.8, while Keaschall posted plus-15.7 WPA and an identical RE24 of plus-0.8. On the pitching side, Taj Bradley led all pitchers with plus-15.6 WPA, followed by A.J. Minter at plus-14.4 and Andrew Morris at plus-10.5, the trio collectively keeping San Francisco's offense in check across the game's critical innings.