Cleveland Guardians at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 0 |
| BOS | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians held on to defeat the Boston Red Sox 3-2 at Fenway Park on September 22, 2026, in a tight game that was not decided until the final out. The DiamondIQ model opened with Boston as a 55% pre-game favorite, but Cleveland's pitching staff kept the offense in check long enough for the Guardians to push across a decisive ninth-inning run and close the door on a Red Sox comeback.
The game's two biggest moments by win-probability impact came in the final two innings and pulled the contest in opposite directions before Cleveland ultimately prevailed. Mickey Gasper gave Boston hope in the bottom of the eighth, launching a home run off Hunter Gaddis that swung win probability 21.9 points in Boston's favor and pulled the Red Sox to within one. Cleveland answered in the top of the ninth when Jo Adell singled off Erik Miller, a play worth plus-20.0 points of win probability that restored the Guardians' cushion. Boston's chances effectively ended one half-inning later when Nick Sogard grounded out against Cade Smith to close the game, a sequence that swung 21.4 points of win probability back to Cleveland. Jarren Duran had briefly kept the inning alive with a walk, but Cade Smith and the Guardians' bullpen did not allow the Red Sox to capitalize.
On the individual ledger, Gasper finished as Boston's top performer by WPA at plus-21.9 with an RE24 of plus-1.0, his home run representing the lone genuine momentum shift for the home side. Adell led Cleveland's offensive contributors at plus-15.6 WPA, while Sogard, whose groundout sealed the win, posted plus-18.5 WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.2, reflecting his role in an out that happened to end the game in Cleveland's favor. On the mound, Parker Messick was the Guardians' most valuable arm by WPA at plus-21.3, aided significantly by Roman Anthony's ground into a double play in the bottom of the third, which cost Boston minus-8.6 points of win probability. Erik Sabrowski and Alec Gamboa each contributed positive WPA figures as Cleveland's bullpen navigated a nervous finish to protect the one-run lead.