Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-3 at Citi Field on September 18, 2026, in a game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 44 percent in favor of New York but closed at 100 percent by the final out. The Mets struck first and decisively in the bottom of the first, where a Brett Baty lineout shifted win probability by plus 8.1 percent, reflecting a New York threat that materialized into a three-run frame. The Phillies responded with a run in the top of the second, but the pivotal sequence came in the sixth inning when Edmundo Sosa connected on a home run off Zac Thornton that swung win probability plus 11.5 percent in Philadelphia's favor, briefly tightening the contest. That momentum was immediately erased in the bottom half when Juan Soto launched a home run off Orion Kerkering, the single most impactful play of the game at plus 25.1 percent, restoring and extending New York's advantage with three runs scoring in the frame.

Soto finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor by a wide margin, posting a plus 24.1 percent WPA and plus 3.0 RE24, while Sosa added plus 17.1 percent WPA and plus 1.7 RE24 despite pitching for the opposition's side of the ledger. Derek Hill provided the Phillies' lone bright spot in the seventh with a home run off Nate Lavender worth plus 4.9 percent, though it came too late to alter the outcome. On the pitching side, Zac Thornton was New York's most effective arm at plus 19.8 percent WPA, outweighing the damage done by Sosa's sixth-inning shot. Dedniel Núñez and Lavender contributed plus 3.1 and plus 2.9 percent respectively to round out the Mets' bullpen work. The DiamondIQ model leans toward New York having controlled the game's critical junctures, with Soto's sixth-inning blow serving as the definitive turning point in a final line of 13 hits and no errors for the home side.