Seattle Mariners at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners held off the Colorado Rockies 5-4 at Coors Field on September 18, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win sitting at 43% before first pitch and dropping to 0% by the final out. Seattle grabbed an early lead with three runs in the first inning, but Colorado chipped away, scoring one in the fourth on a Jake McCarthy single off Bryan Woo that shifted win probability by 10.2 percentage points and adding two more in the sixth on a McCarthy triple off Gabe Speier worth 21.1 percentage points. Those back-to-back contributions gave McCarthy a game-high plus-29.4% WPA and a plus-2.0 RE24, making him the Rockies' most damaging offensive presence despite the loss.

The decisive blow came in the top of the ninth, when Lazaro Montes connected for a home run off Jordan Romano, swinging win probability by 34.2 percentage points and pushing Seattle's lead to 5-3. That single swing was the largest WPA event of the game and lifted Montes to plus-26.6% WPA on the night. Colorado responded in the bottom of the ninth with a Cole Carrigg single off Andrés Muñoz that pulled the Rockies within one and registered a 12.3-percentage-point swing, but Muñoz closed it out from there. A TJ Rumfield strikeout by José A. Ferrer in the eighth, costing Colorado 11.5 percentage points, had already begun to deflate the Rockies' chances. Bryan Woo paced Seattle's pitching corps at plus-15.8% WPA, followed by Seranthony Domínguez at plus-12.8% and Jaden Hill at plus-10.6%, as the trio collectively neutralized a Colorado lineup that managed 15 hits on the night.