San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 0 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres handed the Colorado Rockies a 9-3 defeat at Coors Field on September 16, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected clearly as the pre-game home win probability of 36 percent collapsed to 0 percent by the final out. San Diego built its advantage steadily through the middle innings, with a four-run fifth frame serving as the decisive blow. The single most consequential play of the game came in that fifth inning, when Samad Taylor lined a single off Nick Frasso that shifted win probability 10.9 percent in the Padres' favor. Ethan Salas added to the damage with a home run in the same frame worth 4.9 percent, giving the Padres a cushion Colorado never approached. An earlier Dustin Harris triple off Mason Adams in the fourth inning had already swung the needle 9.6 percent, and Salas had set the tone even earlier with a second-inning home run off Adams that moved the meter 4.6 percent San Diego's way. The only significant Colorado moment came when Xander Bogaerts grounded into a double play in the third, a swing of negative 5.9 percent that effectively stalled a Rockies threat before it started.
Among the individual standouts, Samad Taylor led all position players with a combined WPA of plus 13.8 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.1 on the night, while Dustin Harris finished at plus 9.0 percent WPA and posted the game's top RE24 mark among batters at plus 1.6. Ethan Salas, with his two home runs, contributed plus 8.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.4, making him the most productive run-creator on the field. On the mound, Robbie Ray was the story for San Diego, generating a game-high plus 14.5 percent WPA as he kept the Rockies to a four-hit, three-run effort across his outing. David Morgan and Yuki Matsui each handled late relief without incident. The Padres finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while Colorado managed just four hits in a performance that validated the DiamondIQ model's lean toward San Diego entering the contest.