San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies handed the San Diego Padres a 9-3 defeat at Coors Field on September 15, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected dramatically as home win probability climbed from 37% before the game to 100% by its conclusion. Colorado collected 16 hits against San Diego's 11, and the Rockies did their most decisive damage in the third and sixth innings, turning a game that appeared competitive through the early frames into a comfortable runaway.

Cole Carrigg was the central figure in Colorado's offensive takeover. He delivered a home run off Walker Buehler in the third inning worth plus 20.3% in win probability, then added a second home run in the sixth against Randy Vasquez that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate by another plus 25.1%, the single largest play of the game. Carrigg finished as the top performer by a wide margin, posting plus 48.8% WPA and plus 4.8 RE24 on the evening. The sixth inning produced a five-run burst that effectively closed the door, with Mickey Moniak adding a triple off Wandy Peralta in that frame for plus 12.8% WPA. San Diego's most consequential swing in the other direction came in the second inning, when Brett Sullivan grounded into a double play against Buehler that cost the Padres 13.6% in win probability. Austin Hays provided the Padres' lone bright spot, hitting a home run off Kyle Freeland in the fifth for plus 12.3% WPA.

On the mound, Ryan Feltner was Colorado's standout, posting plus 14.4% WPA to lead all pitchers. Walker Buehler and Kyle Freeland both finished in negative WPA territory at minus 2.4% and minus 3.6% respectively, unable to contain a Rockies lineup that tagged them early and often. Troy Johnston also contributed meaningfully for Colorado, finishing with plus 18.1% WPA and plus 2.6 RE24 to complement Carrigg's dominant night.