San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 0 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres held off the Colorado Rockies 8-7 at Coors Field on September 14, 2026, in a back-and-forth contest that required every inning to settle. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had pegged Colorado with a 36 percent pre-game win probability, but that figure eroded steadily before landing at zero by game's end. San Diego finished with 13 hits and no errors, while Colorado matched them with 14 hits and no errors of their own, making the one-run margin a product of sequencing and leverage rather than any lopsided statistical edge.
The game's decisive swings came in the middle and late innings. Jake McCarthy's triple in the bottom of the sixth off Kyle Hart generated a 20.7 percent win-probability swing for Colorado, fueling a three-run frame that briefly gave the Rockies life. Connor Norby answered in the bottom of the eighth with a double off Adrian Morejon worth 21.8 percent, keeping Colorado's threat alive, though TJ Rumfield's groundout in that same half-inning swung momentum back toward San Diego by 19.9 percent. Dustin Harris had provided the go-ahead cushion for the Padres earlier in the eighth with a double off Juan Mejia, a hit that added 16.8 percent to San Diego's win probability. The contest was sealed in the bottom of the ninth when Adael Amador grounded out against Mason Miller, a game-ending play that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at 27.0 percent — preserving the Padres' one-run lead.
Among individual performers, Amador finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-27.1 percent despite a neutral RE24 of 0.0, reflecting the enormous leverage of that final out. Dustin Harris posted plus-23.8 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus-0.8, and Connor Norby contributed plus-22.3 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1 in a critical spot. On the pitching side, Casey Mize led all pitchers with a plus-8.2 percent WPA, followed by Adrian Morejon at plus-4.5 percent and Blas Castaño at plus-4.3 percent. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting San Diego's late-inning execution as the primary factor in converting what began as a road underdog situation into a final victory.