San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals held off the San Francisco Giants 2-1 at Busch Stadium on September 14, 2026, in a tightly contested game that was settled by a two-run fifth inning and preserved by a Cardinals bullpen that repeatedly snuffed out San Francisco's attempts to respond. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving St. Louis a 62% win probability, and that figure climbed steadily to a certainty as the Cardinals' relievers finished off the Giants without yielding another run after the sixth.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the fifth, when Alec Burleson singled off Reiver Sanmartin for a swing of plus 13.1% in win probability, the single largest positive impact play of the game for either team. That hit was part of the two-run burst that gave St. Louis its margin, and the Cardinals never looked back. On the other side, San Francisco's best scoring threats were consistently neutralized. Grant McCray grounded out in the seventh off Justin Bruihl for a 13.5% drop in Giants win probability, and McCray was again at the center of a critical failure in the ninth, striking out against Riley O'Brien for a swing of minus 12.8%. Christian Koss grounded out in the same inning against O'Brien, adding another 13.5% negative swing, effectively closing the door on any comeback.

Landen Roupp led all pitchers with a plus 17.2% WPA contribution, while O'Brien added plus 15.2% and Joel Kuhnel contributed plus 14.6%, collectively accounting for a dominant relief effort. Among position players, Burleson finished with plus 12.9% WPA and plus 1.1 RE24, Drew Cavanaugh added plus 10.6% WPA with plus 0.4 RE24, and Leo Bernal posted the best run-environment contribution of any Cardinal bat at plus 1.5 RE24 alongside plus 10.4% WPA. The Giants managed six hits but never converted the situational opportunities needed to overcome a Cardinals unit that the DiamondIQ model ultimately gave 100% win probability at game's end.