Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Chicago White Sox 3-1 on September 13, 2026, at Busch Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 52 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The game was largely a pitching duel through five innings, with the White Sox scratching out their lone run in the top of the second before both clubs settled into a standoff. That changed dramatically in the bottom of the sixth, when Alec Burleson's double off Chris Murphy swung win probability by 35.8 percent in St. Louis's favor, serving as the single most consequential play of the game. The Cardinals pushed across three runs in that inning, and they would not need another.

Chicago mounted a late threat that briefly kept the game in question. Sam Antonacci's triple off Michael McGreevy in the top of the sixth added 10.5 percent to the White Sox's win probability, though the club was unable to convert that opportunity into additional runs. In the ninth, Munetaka Murakami drew a walk off George Soriano to add 9.9 percent, but Colson Montgomery's flyout cost the White Sox 11.6 percent and Andrew Benintendi's flyout subtracted another 9.0 percent, effectively closing the door on any comeback.

Burleson finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a WPA of plus-33.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, making his sixth-inning double the decisive moment of the contest. On the pitching side, David Sandlin led all hurlers with a WPA of plus-25.7 percent, followed by Michael McGreevy at plus-17.5 percent and Gordon Graceffo at plus-15.3 percent, as the Cardinals' pitching staff collectively held the White Sox to four hits and one error-free game from St. Louis's defense sealed the outcome.