Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds overcame a 68 percent pre-game home win probability assigned to Milwaukee by the DiamondIQ model and defeated the Brewers 4-3 at American Family Field on September 13, 2026. Cincinnati's offense was quiet through five frames but erupted for three runs in the sixth inning, headlined by a Eugenio Suárez home run off Antonio Senzatela that swung win probability 28.9 points in the Reds' favor. The Brewers clawed back with a Jake Bauers solo home run off Brandon Williamson in the seventh, a swing worth 17.3 points of win probability, keeping Milwaukee within striking distance entering the final frames. Cincinnati tacked on an insurance run in the eighth, and when Milwaukee's rally attempts collapsed — Jackson Chourio grounded into a double play off Brock Burke in the eighth, a 23.8-point swing against the Brewers, and Brice Turang was caught stealing to erase another threat — the window for a Milwaukee comeback narrowed sharply.

The final out of the ninth encapsulated the game's tension: Christian Yelich's flyout off Emilio Pagán ended Milwaukee's last threat, a moment that moved win probability 27.0 points toward Cincinnati and sealed the result. By WPA, Yelich finished as the top individual performer at plus-33.0 percent, a reflection of how many high-leverage situations he appeared in throughout the evening. Suárez contributed plus-19.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3 while Sal Stewart added plus-15.4 percent WPA on the offensive side. On the mound, Brock Burke was the game's most valuable arm, generating plus-23.3 percent WPA by stranding Milwaukee threats in the eighth, with JoJo Romero and Robert Gasser providing additional support. The DiamondIQ model entered the game heavily favoring Milwaukee and closed at zero percent, a complete reversal driven by Cincinnati's decisive sixth-inning burst and a series of failed Brewer rallies in the back half.