San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the San Francisco Giants 6-4 at Oracle Park on September 13, 2026, in a game that was competitive through the middle innings but never changed hands in the final stretch. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Giants a 41% chance of winning before first pitch, and that figure steadily eroded as San Diego built its lead early and held it. The Padres scored two in the first and added three more in the second, staking themselves to a commanding advantage that San Francisco spent the remainder of the game trying to overcome without success.

The decisive swings in win probability came in the late innings, where the outcome was effectively sealed. Christian Koss delivered a single in the bottom of the sixth off David Morgan that shifted win probability 9.1 points in San Francisco's favor, briefly keeping a Giants rally alive, but Koss then produced the game's most damaging play for the home side in the eighth, lofting a flyout off Randy Vásquez that swung win probability 12.3 points back toward San Diego. A walk drawn by Scott Bandura off Vásquez in that same frame added 8.9 points for the Padres, compounding the damage. The Giants' last meaningful hope ended in the ninth when Jonah Cox struck out against Yuki Matsui, a swing of plus-11.6 points in San Diego's favor that confirmed the final margin.

Among the individual performers, Bandura led all batters with a WPA of plus-11.7 and a RE24 of plus-0.4, while Fernando Tatis Jr. contributed a WPA of plus-4.9 with a RE24 of plus-1.6, making him the most impactful run-context performer in the Padres lineup. Andrew Knizner's two-run home run off Nick Pivetta in the second added 8.8 points for San Francisco, briefly tightening things before San Diego responded. On the mound, Wandy Peralta led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-13.5, edging Randy Vásquez at plus-13.3, as the Padres bullpen locked down a game the offense had won early.