Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays handled the Baltimore Orioles decisively at Rogers Centre on September 13, 2026, winning 8-1 to move the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win probability from 56% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. The game remained relatively contained through four innings before a pivotal fifth frame turned it into a rout, with Toronto plating three runs in the bottom half to seize firm control after Baltimore had briefly threatened in the top of the inning.

The fifth inning was the decisive stretch in both directions. Baltimore manufactured some momentum in the top half, as Dylan Beavers doubled off Dylan Cease for a 7.7% win-probability swing and Pete Alonso followed with a single that added another 9.1%, pulling the Orioles to within striking distance. Toronto's bullpen held the damage to one run, however, and the Blue Jays answered emphatically in the bottom of the inning against Trevor Rogers. George Springer led the onslaught with a home run worth plus 13.4% in win probability, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed with another homer at plus 11.7%, and Kazuma Okamoto added a third home run off Rogers at plus 9.1%, effectively burying any Baltimore comeback. Toronto added four more runs in the eighth to set the final margin.

Guerrero finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus 14.8% with a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Springer contributed plus 11.8% WPA and led all players with a RE24 of plus 2.8. Okamoto added plus 7.1% WPA. On the mound, Dylan Cease paced Toronto's pitching staff at plus 7.1% WPA, with Mason Fluharty and Tyler Rogers contributing plus 5.0% and plus 4.5%, respectively. Baltimore's Trevor Rogers absorbed the brunt of the damage, surrendering all three fifth-inning home runs that functionally decided the contest.