Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | - | 12 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The Atlanta Braves routed the Philadelphia Phillies 12-2 on September 12, 2026, at Truist Park, turning what began as a competitive game into a comfortable blowout. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 58% pre-game home win probability for Atlanta, and by the end of the fourth inning that figure had climbed toward certainty, ultimately closing at 100%. Philadelphia managed to score first in the top of the first, but the game turned decisively in the home half of the fourth, when Atlanta sent the Phillies pitching staff into disarray and plated eight runs in the frame.
The fourth inning was the defining sequence of the game, driven largely by Philadelphia's inability to contain damage. Mauricio Dubón delivered a single off Grant Holman that swung win probability by 20.6 percentage points, the single largest play of the game. A Sean Murphy fielding error added another 7.1 percentage points, and Drake Baldwin followed with a double worth 12.2 percentage points, compounding the inning's damage before Holman was pulled. Ronald Acuña Jr. then greeted Brooks Raley with a home run that shifted win probability an additional 12.1 percentage points, effectively putting the contest out of reach. Atlanta added a run in the sixth and three more in the eighth to reach the final margin of 12.
Among individual performers, Acuña Jr. led all batters with a WPA of plus 14.3 and an RE24 of plus 2.6, his home run representing the signature blow of the night. Dubón posted a WPA of plus 11.9 despite a second-inning ground into a double play that had cost Atlanta 8.7 percentage points, while Baldwin contributed a WPA of plus 8.7 and an RE24 of plus 1.8. On the pitching side, Tim Mayza was the standout performer with a WPA of plus 19.7, and Tyler Mahle added plus 6.5. Philadelphia finished with seven hits and committed two errors, while Atlanta went errorless across 13 hits.