Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| STL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | - | 7 | 13 | 0 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Chicago White Sox 7-3 at Busch Stadium on September 11, 2026, in a game that began evenly but tilted decisively toward the home team by the fifth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 52 percent pre-game win probability for St. Louis, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent at the final out. The Cardinals tallied 13 hits without committing an error, while Chicago managed 9 hits in a loss that was ultimately shaped by a handful of pivotal sequences spread across the middle innings.
Chicago briefly took control of the game's probability in the third inning when Chase Meidroth connected on a home run off Matthew Liberatore, a swing that shifted win probability 10.5 percent in the White Sox's favor and represented the single most impactful offensive play of the night for either club. That momentum proved short-lived, however. A Braden Montgomery flyout in the fourth against Liberatore cost Chicago 9.1 percent in win probability, and the White Sox's inability to generate offense off Gordon Graceffo became the defining story of the fifth, where a Tristan Peters strikeout marked a 10.1 percent swing against the visitors. St. Louis then seized the frame entirely, as Joshua Báez laced a double off Trevor Richards for a 9.1 percent swing and Alec Burleson followed with a run-producing single worth 8.7 percent, turning the fifth into a three-run inning that effectively decided the contest.
In terms of individual performance by win-probability contribution, Meidroth led all batters with a plus-14.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.3, though his efforts were not enough to prevent the loss. Báez and Burleson anchored the Cardinals' offensive production with plus-14.6 and plus-9.5 percent WPA respectively, combining for the critical damage in the fifth. On the mound, Graceffo paced all pitchers with a plus-6.9 percent WPA, and Luis Gastelum added plus-3.3 percent in support as the Cardinals' staff stifled Chicago's lineup across the final four innings to secure the comfortable four-run victory.