Chicago Cubs at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 10 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins handled the Chicago Cubs decisively on September 6, 2026, at loanDepot park, winning 10-3 in a game that was largely decided by the middle innings. The DiamondIQ model opened with Miami as a near-even proposition at 48% home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100% by the final out. Miami's offense broke through in the second inning with a pair of runs, and while Chicago answered with a run of its own in the third on Tyrone Taylor's double off Tyler Phillips — a hit that added 11.0% in win probability — the Cubs were unable to sustain that momentum. The fifth inning proved to be the definitive stretch of the afternoon, with both clubs exchanging pivotal plays in opposite directions.
The Marlins' biggest individual swing came in the bottom of the fourth, where Heriberto Hernández launched a home run off Clay Holmes that shifted Miami's win probability by 11.8%, and Hernández finished as the game's most impactful offensive player with a cumulative WPA of plus-22.5% and a RE24 of plus-2.2. On the Chicago side, Pete Crow-Armstrong delivered the Cubs' most significant moment with a solo home run off Tyler Phillips in the top of the fifth, worth plus-12.4% in win probability and accounting for most of his plus-9.0% WPA on the day. However, Miami responded in the bottom half of that same inning with a five-run outburst, punctuated by a Kyle Stowers walk off Clay Holmes worth 10.1% and a Griffin Conine hit by pitch worth 8.4%, both of which compounded the damage against Chicago's bullpen.
On the mound, Miami's relief corps closed things out cleanly, with Victor Vodnik contributing the most among Marlins pitchers at plus-2.0% WPA and Josh Ekness adding plus-1.4%. Chicago's pitching staff, led by Clay Holmes, absorbed significant punishment through the critical innings. The final line told the full story — ten runs on eleven hits for the Marlins against seven hits and three runs for the Cubs — and by the late innings the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected no remaining uncertainty about the outcome.