St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Colorado Rockies 10-8 at Coors Field on September 6, 2026, in a game that swung decisively on a six-run fifth inning that erased what had looked like a promising Colorado start. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 42 percent pre-game home win probability for the Rockies, but that figure was effectively zeroed out by the time St. Louis finished its fifth-inning assault on Jimmy Herget. The two biggest blows in that frame came from Nolan Gorman, whose home run generated the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-25.1 percent, followed immediately by a Joshua Báez single worth plus-23.1 percent, together accounting for nearly half a win of swing in a matter of plate appearances.

Colorado had built an early foundation behind Mickey Moniak, whose third-inning home run off Kyle Leahy produced a plus-23.3 percent swing for the Rockies and stood as the most consequential play of the game from Colorado's side. The Rockies added a run in the first and three more in the third to carry a 5-1 advantage into the middle innings, but the Cardinals' five-run swing in the fifth turned that cushion into a deficit. St. Louis extended its lead with a three-run eighth, punctuated by an Iván Herrera double off Nick Frasso worth plus-14.3 percent, before Colorado's two-run ninth came too late, with Troy Johnston's strikeout against George Soriano closing the door at plus-12.0 percent for St. Louis.

On the individual leaderboard, Báez finished as the Cardinals' top offensive contributor by WPA at plus-25.1 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.1, while Moniak led all players in RE24 at plus-3.5 despite being on the losing side. Gorman added plus-19.2 percent WPA to his ledger. On the mound, Cooper Hjerpe was the game's most valuable arm by WPA at plus-24.3 percent, with Mark Manfredi and Tanner Gordon each contributing modest positives in relief to help St. Louis secure the final line of 10 runs on 15 hits.