St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 2 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 0 | - | 10 | 11 | 0 |
The Story
The Colorado Rockies defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 10-7 at Coors Field on September 5, 2026, in a game that turned decisively on a massive fifth inning from the home side. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 43 percent pre-game win probability for Colorado, a figure that climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by game's end. St. Louis briefly grabbed momentum in the top of the fifth when Iván Herrera launched a home run off Mason Adams, a swing that added 22.4 percent to the Cardinals' win probability and represented their most impactful play of the afternoon. Colorado answered immediately in the bottom half, erasing that advantage and then some in a six-run explosion that functionally decided the contest.
The bottom of the fifth was the pivotal sequence of the game. Jake McCarthy drew a walk off Matthew Liberatore that shifted win probability 18.6 percent in Colorado's favor, and Adael Amador followed with a single off the same pitcher worth another 16.0 percent swing. Connor Norby then singled off Luis Gastelum for an additional 15.2 percent, as the Rockies sent multiple relievers scrambling and continued to pile on. Nolan Gorman answered with a double off Zach Agnos in the top of the sixth to generate a 13.6 percent swing for St. Louis, but Colorado's 7th-inning four-spot effectively closed the door on any Cardinals comeback.
Connor Norby led all batters with a cumulative WPA of plus-23.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.5, while Jake McCarthy contributed plus-19.5 percent WPA and plus-1.7 RE24. Herrera, despite being on the losing side, posted plus-17.8 percent WPA and plus-1.6 RE24 on the strength of his fifth-inning home run. On the mound, Jaden Hill was Colorado's most valuable arm, finishing with a WPA of plus-8.5 percent, followed by Brennan Bernardino at plus-3.8 percent and Jordan Romano at plus-3.0 percent. St. Louis committed two errors against a Colorado defense that played cleanly, an additional factor in the Rockies' comfortable final margin.