Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-2 at Citizens Bank Park on September 5, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 51 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Zack Wheeler was the central figure in Philadelphia's victory, finishing as the game's top pitcher by WPA at plus-20.7 percent, a figure that reflected his ability to limit Atlanta's offense across the heart of the game despite surrendering a third-inning solo home run to Ronald Acuña Jr. that briefly gave the Braves life with a plus-8.2 percent win-probability swing. Kyle Schwarber answered in the bottom of the fourth with a home run off Martín Pérez worth plus-8.5 percent in win probability, reclaiming the advantage for Philadelphia and finishing as the game's top offensive performer at plus-10.1 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24.

Atlanta made a late push in the seventh when Austin Riley connected for a home run off Jonathan Bowlan, a plus-7.9 percent swing that trimmed the deficit to two, but the rally stalled in the eighth in decisive fashion. Ronald Acuña Jr., who had been Atlanta's most dangerous bat, grounded into a double play off José Alvarado that carried a minus-13.8 percent win-probability impact, the single most consequential play of the game and the moment that effectively closed the door on any Braves comeback. Drake Baldwin followed with a single off Alvarado worth plus-7.1 percent from Atlanta's perspective, but the damage from the double play proved insurmountable. Alvarado and Ray Kerr combined for plus-16.7 percent WPA out of the Philadelphia bullpen, preserving a game Wheeler had built, as the Phillies held Atlanta to five hits and two runs on the night.