New York Yankees at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres walked off the New York Yankees 3-2 in ten innings on September 4, 2026, at Petco Park, with Luis Campusano delivering the decisive blow in the bottom of the tenth. The game had been knotted at one through nine innings before the Yankees briefly grabbed the lead in the top of the tenth on a Spencer Jones single off Mason Miller, a hit that swung win probability 31.3 points in New York's favor. Miller answered by striking out Jazz Chisholm Jr. to strand the threat and limit the damage, a strikeout that shifted 23.1 percentage points back toward San Diego and set the stage for what followed.

Campusano then ended matters emphatically, depositing a Paul Blackburn offering over the fence for a walk-off home run that added 88.5 percentage points to San Diego's win probability in a single swing, moving the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a contested situation to a final reading of 100 percent in favor of the Padres. Campusano finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a WPA of plus-85.4 and a RE24 of plus-1.9. The game's lone other scoring before extra innings came in the second inning on a Padres run and in the third on a Ben Rice solo home run off Walker Buehler that carried a WPA swing of plus-10.6. Ty France had kept San Diego's hopes alive with a double off David Bednar in the bottom of the ninth worth plus-12.0 WPA, preventing New York from closing it out in regulation.

On the mound, Will Warren led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-20.8 for the Yankees, followed by Max Fried at plus-16.8 and Buehler at plus-11.9 for San Diego. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game as a true coin flip at 50 percent for the home side, and it remained tightly contested until Campusano's home run rendered further calculation unnecessary. New York finished with five hits and no errors against six hits and no errors for San Diego across ten innings.