St. Louis Cardinals at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 1 |
| COL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
The Story
The St. Louis Cardinals escaped Coors Field with a 7-6 victory over the Colorado Rockies on September 4, 2026, overcoming a deficit that had the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cardinals win sitting at near zero entering the ninth inning. St. Louis had built a 4-0 lead through five innings before Colorado responded with a four-run sixth and an additional run in the seventh, flipping the game in the Rockies' favor heading into the final frame. The Cardinals had managed just scattered offense across the middle innings, and Colorado's late surge, fueled by a Cole Carrigg home run off Hancel Rincon that carried a win-probability swing of plus-16.6 percent, a Troy Johnston double off Justin Bruihl worth plus-12.1 percent, and a TJ Rumfield home run in the seventh adding another plus-13.1 percent, had Colorado positioned to close this one out.
The decisive moment came in the top of the ninth when catcher Iván Herrera connected on a home run off Jordan Romano, a swing that shifted win probability by plus-72.4 percent and stands as the single most impactful play of the game by a wide margin. Herrera finished as the game's top performer with a cumulative WPA of plus-73.8 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.6, his blast erasing whatever closing advantage Colorado had constructed over the prior three innings. Riley O'Brien then recorded the final out in the bottom of the ninth by striking out Cole Carrigg, a sequence that added plus-27.0 percent to St. Louis's win probability and sealed the Cardinals' comeback.
On the pitching side, Andre Pallante led St. Louis relievers with a WPA contribution of plus-16.0 percent, followed by Mark Manfredi at plus-11.2 percent and Jimmy Herget at plus-4.5 percent. Colorado's Carrigg had been the Rockies' most impactful performer, finishing with a WPA of plus-44.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.4, while Rumfield contributed plus-32.2 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 in a losing effort. The Cardinals ultimately outscored Colorado seven to six on eight hits against ten, with St. Louis committing one error to Colorado's two.