San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds defeated the San Diego Padres 7-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 2, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate found entirely unsurprising by game's end, moving from a 50 percent home win probability before first pitch to 100 percent at the final out. The Reds seized control early and never relinquished it, doing the bulk of their damage in a decisive second inning that effectively settled the outcome.

The bottom of the second was the defining sequence of the contest. Juan Brito launched a home run off Casey Mize that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by plus 17.5 percent in Cincinnati's favor, and Héctor Rodríguez followed with another home run off Mize in the same frame, adding another plus 7.8 percent swing. Those two swings alone gave the Reds a cushion that San Diego could never seriously threaten. The Padres' best opportunity to claw back came in the top of the seventh, but Fernando Tatis Jr. struck into a strikeout double play off Tejay Antone, a minus 11.8 percent swing that extinguished the rally. Xander Bogaerts had already stalled momentum in the third with a ground into double play off Brandon Williamson, costing San Diego minus 8.4 percent in win probability. JJ Bleday then put the game away with a seventh-inning home run off Jhony Brito, a plus 12.6 percent swing that closed any remaining door.

Juan Brito led all players with a plus 22.1 percent WPA and a plus 2.7 RE24, while Bleday contributed plus 14.4 percent WPA and plus 2.4 RE24. Ty France added plus 9.1 percent WPA and plus 2.5 RE24 for Cincinnati. On the mound, Pierce Johnson paced Reds relievers at plus 9.7 percent WPA, followed by Antone at plus 7.2 percent and Wandy Peralta at plus 4.9 percent, as Cincinnati's bullpen shut the door cleanly after the starters set the table.