San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | - | 4 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds defeated the San Diego Padres 4-3 at Great American Ball Park on September 1, 2026, in a game that remained tight through seven innings before Cincinnati pulled away with a decisive two-run eighth. The DiamondIQ model opened with a near-even 49 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, reflecting how completely the Reds controlled the game's final chapter.
The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth inning against Adrian Morejon, when Jose Trevino delivered a single that shifted win probability by 12.0 percent and Sal Stewart followed with a single worth 10.6 percent, the two hits combining to break open what had been a tied game and put the Reds ahead for good. Fernando Tatis Jr. had given San Diego a temporary lift in the fifth with a home run off Nick Lodolo that added 12.7 percent to the Padres' win probability, but Ty France's double-play grounder in the third — the game's single costliest batting play at negative 15.6 percent — had already stifled an early San Diego threat and kept Lodolo in command.
Sal Stewart led all batters by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, finishing with a combined WPA of plus 12.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 0.4, while Héctor Rodríguez posted the strongest run-creation number among Cincinnati hitters at plus 1.0 RE24 alongside a 6.3 percent WPA contribution anchored by his fifth-inning single. On the mound, Nick Lodolo was the game's most valuable arm at plus 14.3 percent WPA, with Brock Burke adding plus 10.6 percent and Bradgley Rodriguez contributing plus 8.4 percent as Cincinnati's bullpen secured the one-run victory.