Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 11 | 2 |
| CHC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
The Story
The Cincinnati Reds handed the Chicago Cubs a 7-5 defeat at Wrigley Field on August 30, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 63 percent chance of winning. The Reds did their most decisive damage against Cubs starter Shota Imanaga in a pair of middle innings, erasing an early Chicago lead and seizing control of a game that ultimately ended with the model's home win probability at zero.
The turning point arrived in the fourth inning when Héctor Rodríguez launched a home run off Imanaga that swung win probability 30.9 percent in Cincinnati's favor, the single largest play of the game. Rodríguez finished as the top performer by both metrics, posting a WPA of plus 28.4 percent and an RE24 of plus 2.0. Imanaga could not escape the fifth either, surrendering home runs to Tyler Stephenson and Dane Myers in the same frame. Stephenson's blast moved the needle 18.9 percent toward the Reds while Myers added another 12.3 percent swing, and the pair finished second and third among position players by WPA at plus 18.4 and plus 8.7, respectively. Sal Stewart extended the Cincinnati advantage further with a solo home run off Trent Thornton in the seventh, contributing an additional 7.1 percent shift. Chicago managed a run in each of the eighth and ninth innings, and Seiya Suzuki's flyout to end the ninth off Emilio Pagán actually registered as the Cubs' top positive play at plus 14.4 percent, a reflection of how close the margin felt late even as the outcome was decided.
On the mound, the Reds bullpen secured the win cleanly, with Brock Burke leading Cincinnati's relievers at plus 7.2 percent WPA, followed by Caleb Thielbar at plus 2.7 percent and Jacob Webb at plus 0.7 percent. The Reds collected 11 hits against two errors of their own, while Chicago finished with nine hits and played cleanly in the field. The DiamondIQ model leaned heavily toward the home team entering the night, but four Reds home runs off Imanaga and the late bullpen work rendered that pre-game advantage moot by the final out.