Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals walked off the Miami Marlins 5-4 in ten innings on August 29, 2026, at Nationals Park, completing a dramatic comeback that swung the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 51 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by game's end. The scoring was heavily front-loaded for Washington, as the Nationals plated four runs in the bottom of the third inning off Sandy Alcantara, with Dylan Crews delivering a single that added 14.2 percent to Washington's win probability. Miami answered emphatically in the top of the seventh, when Heriberto Hernández launched a home run off Brad Lord that swung win probability 28.1 percent in the Marlins' favor, erasing the deficit and knotting the game at four. The contest remained tied through the ninth and into extras, with Nasim Nuñez's lineout off Josh Ekness in the top of the ninth registering as a notable 14.0 percent swing preserving the tie, and Hernández's flyout in that same half-inning costing Miami 12.0 percent.

The decisive moment came in the bottom of the tenth, when Crews lined a walk-off single off Michael Petersen, a hit that carried a game-winning swing of plus 33.4 percent and capped a dominant individual performance. Crews finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, accumulating plus 42.3 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 across his two pivotal singles. Hernández led Miami's effort with plus 12.9 percent WPA and plus 1.1 RE24 despite his costly ninth-inning flyout, while Daylen Lile contributed plus 9.2 percent WPA and plus 0.8 RE24 for Washington. On the mound, Cade Cavalli led Nationals pitchers with plus 13.2 percent WPA, followed closely by Jack Ralston at plus 12.7 percent and Erik Tolman at plus 6.8 percent, a collective bullpen effort that held Miami scoreless from the eighth inning through extras and set the stage for Crews' game-ending blow.