Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles dismantled the St. Louis Cardinals 13-1 at Busch Stadium on August 25, 2026, turning what opened as a game the DiamondIQ model estimated the Cardinals would win 55 percent of the time into a complete rout that finished at zero percent for the home side. Baltimore did the bulk of its damage in two innings, erupting for four runs in the third and eight more in the fifth to render the contest effectively over by the midpoint of the game. The Cardinals managed their lone run in the bottom of the third, but it was a brief and ultimately insignificant response to what had already become a decisive Orioles advantage. Baltimore collected 17 hits against St. Louis pitching while committing no errors, a commanding performance on both sides of the ball.

The third inning was the turning point by the numbers, and Pete Alonso was its defining figure. His home run off Matthew Liberatore shifted win probability by plus 19.7 percent, the single largest swing of the game, and set the tone for everything that followed. Christian Encarnacion-Strand added his own home run off Liberatore in the same inning for another plus 7.6 percent swing, and a Jackson Holliday single contributed an additional plus 5.2 percent, compressing much of the game's outcome into a brief, devastating stretch of Baltimore offense. Nathan Church answered the Cardinals' lone home run with one of his own in the bottom of the third, a plus 7.8 percent swing in Baltimore's favor that further extinguished any St. Louis momentum before the fifth-inning eruption made the final margin academic.

By WPA, Alonso finished as the game's most impactful player at plus 23.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 4.5, reflecting both his run-producing and situational value throughout the lineup. Encarnacion-Strand followed at plus 11.4 percent and a RE24 of plus 1.3, and Church contributed plus 7.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.0. On the mound, Chris Bassitt led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 9.6 percent, limiting further damage despite absorbing the Cardinals' lone run. The DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked the collapse in real time, and the final line of 13 runs, 17 hits, and no errors told the complete story of Baltimore's dominance in St. Louis.