Cleveland Guardians at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians held off a late Colorado push to win 4-3 at Coors Field on August 22, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving the home Rockies a 43 percent win probability that ultimately collapsed to zero by the final out.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the fourth inning, when Jo Adell drove a home run off Gabriel Hughes that shifted win probability by 23.7 percent in Cleveland's favor, part of a three-run frame that gave the Guardians the lead they would not relinquish. Patrick Bailey added to the cushion in the top of the sixth with a run-scoring single off Nick Frasso, a play that moved the needle another 12.8 percent toward Cleveland. Colorado responded with a Mickey Moniak home run off Tanner Bibee in the bottom of the fifth and a run in the ninth, but Cade Smith closed the door in dramatic fashion, striking out Brett Sullivan with the tying run on base for the game's single largest win-probability swing, a 31.6 percent shift that sealed the outcome. Connor Norby's home run off Smith in that same ninth inning briefly tightened the margin, but it was not enough.
By WPA, Sullivan paradoxically led all batters at plus 25.5 percent despite being the final out, a reflection of how deep into leverage his plate appearance carried, while Adell's home run made him the game's most productive offensive contributor at plus 25.1 percent and a RE24 of plus 2.3. On the mound, Hunter Gaddis led Cleveland's relievers with a plus 13.3 percent WPA contribution, with Erik Sabrowski adding plus 8.8 percent as the Guardians bullpen preserved what the offense built in the middle innings.