Washington Nationals at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 4-3 at Citi Field on August 16, 2026, in a game that turned decisively in the bottom of the fourth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving the Mets a 51 percent home win probability, but that figure climbed sharply as New York's offense did its damage against Washington starter Jake Irvin. The Mets were held scoreless through the first three innings before a three-run fourth changed the complexion of the contest, with Luis Torrens delivering the biggest blow of the game — a home run off Irvin that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 21.0 percent. Brett Baty had set the table in that same inning with a double worth plus 9.9 percent, and Jared Young added to the cushion in the fifth with a double off Irvin worth plus 10.5 percent, pushing New York's grip on the game tighter.

Washington did not go quietly. Abimelec Ortiz hit a home run off Christian Scott in the top of the third, a swing worth plus 10.4 percent in win probability for the Nationals, and Keibert Ruiz singled off Scott in the seventh to generate plus 11.6 percent, keeping Washington's hopes briefly alive with the Mets holding a one-run lead. The Nationals finished with three runs on five hits and committed no errors, but could not complete the comeback. Torrens led all batters with a plus 15.5 percent WPA and plus 1.4 RE24, while Ruiz finished at plus 13.0 percent WPA and Young at plus 12.4 percent WPA on the offensive side. On the mound, Kodai Senga led New York's pitching staff with plus 15.2 percent WPA, followed by Nate Lavender at plus 11.3 percent and Daniel Duarte at plus 10.8 percent, as the three combined to protect the lead through Washington's late-game push. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 100 percent in favor of the Mets.