Miami Marlins at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins blanked the Cincinnati Reds through seven innings and then erupted for seven runs over the final two frames to take the game 7-1 at Great American Ball Park on August 16, 2026. The DiamondIQ model opened the night with Cincinnati holding a 51 percent home win probability, but that figure collapsed to zero by the final out as the Marlins outscored the error-prone Reds seven to one while committing no defensive miscues of their own against Cincinnati's three.

The decisive sequence came in the eighth inning, where the game's two biggest win-probability swings unfolded in quick succession. Heriberto Hernández delivered a home run off Tejay Antone that shifted Miami's win probability upward by 21.3 percent, the single largest play of the game by that measure. Cincinnati responded when Tyler Stephenson connected for a home run off Michael Petersen in the bottom half, a swing worth plus 18.8 percent for the Reds, briefly keeping Cincinnati in the conversation. But a Griffin Conine walk off Antone added another 12.9 percent to Miami's ledger, and a JJ Bleday pop out cost the Reds 12.9 percent in the same frame. Agustín Ramírez then doubled off Ron Marinaccio in the ninth for an additional 12.6 percent, helping the Marlins put the game away with five runs in that final inning.

On the mound, Eury Pérez led all pitchers with a plus-29.4 percent WPA contribution, and Nick Lodolo posted plus-21.8 percent despite pitching for Cincinnati in a losing effort. Julian Garcia added plus-15.4 percent to Miami's cause. Among position players, Hernández finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-22.3 percent with a 0.5 RE24, while both Stephenson and Conine each posted plus-1.0 RE24 alongside their significant win-probability contributions.