St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals dismantled the Chicago Cubs 11-4 at Wrigley Field on August 16, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 61 percent pre-game win probability for Chicago. The Cardinals scored in three of the first four innings, but the decisive blow came in the top of the fourth, when a six-run outburst effectively ended the competitive portion of the game. Alec Burleson's single off Ryan Rolison was the highest-impact hit of that rally, shifting win probability 12.1 percent in St. Louis's favor, and a walk drawn by JJ Wetherholt off Edward Cabrera added another 9.5 percent swing as the Cardinals sent a parade of runners across the plate. The Cubs had shown a brief pulse in the bottom of the third, when Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a home run off Hunter Dobbins to pull Chicago within striking distance, a swing worth 18.2 percent in win probability. However, Pedro Ramírez grounded out in the bottom of the second in a bases-loaded situation, a 10.5 percent negative swing for the Cubs that kept St. Louis's early lead intact and foreshadowed Chicago's inability to capitalize when runners were on base.

Individually, Wetherholt was the Cardinals' most impactful offensive performer, finishing with a WPA of plus-17.4 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.7, his contributions woven throughout the early innings. Burleson posted a RE24 of plus-2.9 to go alongside his plus-11.0 percent WPA, reflecting his ability to deliver with runners on base. For the Cubs, Crow-Armstrong's home run gave him a plus-16.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-0.9, but his effort was largely symbolic given the game's trajectory. On the mound, Hunter Dobbins was the Cardinals' most valuable arm, finishing with a plus-8.7 percent WPA while limiting further damage after the Crow-Armstrong homer. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Chicago's win probability fell from 61 percent before the first pitch to zero percent by the game's end, a complete reversal built primarily on St. Louis's ruthless efficiency in the fourth inning.