Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 12 | 0 |
| HOU | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 12 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the Seattle Mariners 10-7 in ten innings on August 14, 2026, at Daikin Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of Houston's win probability climbing from 59 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by game's end. The contest was tightly contested through nine innings before an extraordinary extra-inning exchange decided it. Seattle struck first with two runs in the opening frame and added a run in the sixth and two more in the eighth, with Brock Rodden's double off Bryan Abreu in the top of the eighth carrying a win-probability swing of plus 20.3 percent to keep the Mariners competitive. Victor Robles then delivered the most impactful offensive play of the night in the top of the tenth, tripling off Enyel De Los Santos to give Seattle a two-run lead with a win-probability swing of plus 48.0 percent, the single largest positive swing for either side to that point.
Houston answered immediately and decisively in the bottom of the tenth against Andrés Muñoz. Daulton Varsho opened the inning with a single that swung win probability plus 44.4 percent in Houston's favor, erasing the Mariners' lead in an instant. Christian Walker then finished the rally with a home run off Muñoz worth plus 37.9 percent in win-probability terms, delivering the walk-off margin and capping a five-run Astros tenth. Jeremy Peña had also contributed in the bottom of the ninth, where his groundout registered a plus 14.0 percent WPA swing off Eduard Bazardo, reflecting favorable run-prevention context.
Among individual performers, Robles led all batters with a plus 52.8 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0 on the night, while Walker finished at plus 33.0 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.2 in a more limited sample. Varsho posted plus 40.0 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 0.8 in his decisive contribution. On the mound, Josh Hader led Houston's pitching staff with plus 13.5 percent WPA, followed by Steven Okert at plus 7.2 percent and Eduard Bazardo at plus 7.0 percent for Seattle. The DiamondIQ model leans toward Houston having controlled the decisive sequences of the game through their bottom-of-the-tenth response, turning a near-certain loss into a comfortable final margin.