Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds held on to defeat the Chicago White Sox 9-8 on August 13, 2026, at Rate Field in a game that swung dramatically on a handful of pivotal plays. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 57% pre-game win probability favoring the home side, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as the Reds erased a promising White Sox position and escaped with the road victory.

The decisive moments were concentrated in the top of the fourth inning and the bottom of the ninth. Tyler Stephenson's home run off Erick Fedde in the fourth shifted win probability by 26.2 points in Cincinnati's favor, and a subsequent single by Sal Stewart off Fedde added another 8.6 points, helping the Reds plate four runs in that frame alone to build what appeared to be a commanding lead. Chicago clawed back, however, and the bottom of the ninth became the game's most consequential sequence. A groundout by Sam Antonacci off Julian Garcia closed the door on the White Sox's final rally with a 27.0-point swing, the largest single-play win-probability move of the game. Earlier, Chicago's Chase Meidroth had kept his team alive with a double in the second inning worth 9.1 points, part of a three-run frame that also included a Randal Grichuk double worth 11.8 points off Andrew Abbott.

Stephenson led all players in WPA at plus-33.6 with an RE24 of plus-3.8, making him the clear offensive driver for Cincinnati. Antonacci contributed plus-22.9 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-0.5, a reflection of the high-leverage context of his game-ending groundout rather than raw run production. Meidroth paced Chicago at plus-15.2 WPA with a plus-2.2 RE24. On the mound, Cincinnati's Trevor Richards, Pierce Johnson, and Tejay Antone each posted modest but meaningful positive WPA figures of plus-4.5, plus-4.4, and plus-4.1 respectively, helping preserve the one-run margin through the final innings.