Cincinnati Reds at Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Cincinnati Reds edged the Chicago White Sox 5-4 in ten innings at Rate Field on August 11, 2026, completing a comeback that erased a deficit built almost entirely in the early innings. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring Chicago at 57% and watched that number hold through the middle frames before collapsing entirely to 0% by the final out.

The decisive sequence came in extra innings, where both teams were tested in high-leverage situations and repeatedly came up short at the plate in ways that ultimately benefited Cincinnati. In the top of the tenth, Sal Stewart's groundout off Sean Newcomb carried a win-probability swing of plus 23.1% in the Reds' favor, followed closely by Michael Toglia's flyout that added another plus 16.4%. Those outs were damaging to Chicago's chances but set up the pivotal bottom half, where Tristan Peters' pop out off Emilio Pagán in the bottom of the tenth registered the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 31.6%, sealing the Cincinnati victory. The Reds had surged ahead on a three-run eighth inning, with Elly De La Cruz delivering a key single off Bryan Hudson that shifted momentum at plus 12.5%.

Among the game's top performers by win-probability metrics, Edgar Quero stood out with a combined plus 21.1% WPA and a positive RE24 of plus 0.8, adding value in the bottom of the ninth when his flyout off Brock Burke carried plus 14.0% for the home side. On the pitching side, Sean Burke led all hurlers with plus 22.1% WPA, while Tejay Antone contributed plus 10.9% as Cincinnati's bullpen held Chicago scoreless from the fifth inning onward. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting that pitching performance as the structural backbone of the Reds' road win.