Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 3-2 at Petco Park on August 10, 2026, in a low-scoring contest that hinged on a single swing in the seventh inning. The Padres entered the game as slight underdogs by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, which placed San Diego's pre-game win probability at 44 percent, but the final reading closed at 100 percent as the home side held on through the final two frames.

The scoring opened in the second inning, with Milwaukee drawing first blood on a Christian Yelich home run off Casey Mize that shifted win probability 8.5 percentage points in Milwaukee's favor. San Diego answered immediately in the bottom half, as Ty France connected off Logan Henderson for a home run of his own, a swing worth 7.4 percentage points in WPA that knotted the game and gave the Padres a foothold. The contest remained deadlocked at two runs apiece through six innings before Jackson Merrill delivered the decisive blow in the bottom of the seventh, lifting a home run off Logan Henderson that carried a win-probability swing of plus-30.1 percentage points, the single largest play of the night and the moment that effectively settled the outcome. Milwaukee's best chance to respond evaporated in the top of the eighth, when Jake Bauers grounded into a double play against Adrian Morejon, a sequence that erased 11.6 percentage points of win probability from the Brewers' ledger.

On the pitching side, Mason Miller led all pitchers with a plus-15.2 WPA contribution, followed by Casey Mize at plus-14.2 and Morejon at plus-10.8, reflecting the collective effort that preserved San Diego's one-run margin. Merrill finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus-27.0 with a RE24 of plus-1.4, while France added plus-10.6 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 to anchor San Diego's offensive contribution. Milwaukee finished with six hits against five for San Diego, but the Padres' timelier hitting, anchored by Merrill's go-ahead blast, proved to be the difference.