Houston Astros at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres handled the Houston Astros convincingly on August 9, 2026, at Petco Park, winning 7-2 behind a barrage of home runs that erased any early Houston threat and steadily pushed the DiamondIQ model's estimate from a 56 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent. Houston briefly seized the advantage in the top of the second when Daulton Varsho connected on a home run off Randy Vásquez, a swing that shifted win probability by 8.8 percent in the Astros' favor. San Diego answered immediately, as Jackson Merrill launched a home run off Cristian Javier in the bottom half of the inning, a 7.4 percent swing that set the table for what was coming.

The decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the fourth, when Fernando Tatis Jr. crushed a home run off Javier that registered as the game's single largest win-probability swing at plus-32.5 percent, effectively turning a competitive game into a Padres command performance. That one swing nearly erased all remaining uncertainty, and Gavin Sheets added insurance with a home run off AJ Blubaugh in the sixth, contributing an additional 8.0 percent to San Diego's probability. Tatis had shown both extremes during the contest, with a flyout in the second that cost 6.6 percent before his fourth-inning blast more than compensated, leaving him as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-26.4 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.4.

On the mound, San Diego's bullpen closed the door efficiently. Bradgley Rodriguez led all pitchers with a plus-9.5 percent WPA contribution, followed by Kyle Hart at plus-6.4 percent, as the pair helped limit Houston to just two runs and two hits across nine innings. Vásquez's plus-2.8 percent showing rounded out a strong collective pitching effort. The final line told the story clearly: San Diego finished with 12 hits and no errors while holding Houston to a pair of hits, a dominant outcome that the DiamondIQ model reflected with complete certainty by the final out.