Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Milwaukee Brewers held off the Minnesota Twins 4-3 on August 8, 2026, at American Family Field, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving Milwaukee a 67% win probability and closing at 100% after the final out. The Twins grabbed an early advantage in the top of the second when Royce Lewis doubled off Robert Gasser, a swing that shifted win probability 7.9 points in Minnesota's favor and keyed a three-run inning that gave the visitors a 3-1 lead. Milwaukee had taken a 1-0 lead in the bottom of the first, and the Brewers chipped back with two runs in the fourth, with Brice Turang's single off Taj Bradley proving to be the most consequential moment of the game to that point, swinging win probability 15.2 points toward Milwaukee and knotting the contest. Turang's afternoon was a study in contrast, as that same inning his earlier strikeout against Bradley had cost the Brewers 10.0 points of win probability before the single erased the damage.

The decisive blow came in the bottom of the eighth, when Andrew Vaughn singled off Jeff Hoffman to plate what proved to be the winning run, a hit worth 13.4 points of win probability. Minnesota's best chance to respond died in the ninth when Trevor Larnach lined out against Trevor Megill, a play that surrendered 7.1 points of win probability and ended the threat. Megill finished as the top pitching performer by WPA at plus-15.2, with Chad Patrick adding plus-11.3 and Aaron Ashby contributing plus-10.6 in what was a collective bullpen effort to close out the Twins. Vaughn led all batters at plus-12.0 WPA, while Turang finished at plus-10.7 and Royce Lewis posted plus-9.8 despite being on the losing side, his second-inning double briefly giving Minnesota a foothold it ultimately could not maintain.